AM ROTHENBAUM - The Draw

by Craig Hickman

(1) FEDERER, Roger SUI/BYE
(Q)MONACO, Juan ARG vs HRBATY, Dominik SVK
(Q)MASSU, Nicolas CHI vs SAFIN, Marat RUS
WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI vs (15) FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP

(12) FERRER, David ESP vs BJORKMAN, Jonas SWE
SODERLING, Robin SWE vs GINEPRI, Robby USA
(Q) BOLELLI, Simone ITA vs (Q) SERRA, Florent FRA
BYE/(7) LJUBICIC, Ivan CRO

This quarter is most interesting. Roger gets four of the seven qualifiers. Luck or design? With Roger's form of late, it doesn't matter. Dominik Hrbaty can beat Roger, probably even on clay. As it is, he's never lost a match to the struggling Swiss (trivia you didn't know?). But then there's that Argentine qualifier Juan Monaco who might certainly believe he can get past both Hrbaty and Roger based upon recent events. Safin is always a question mark and Rome quarterfinalist Nicolas Massu might have the answer. Juan Carlos certainly knows his way around clay. No one in the bottom half of this quarter can touch Roger on clay, but then most thought the same about Filippo Volandri. If Simone Bolelli couldn't serve out a set against Nicolas Massu, he surely couldn't do it against Roger. But then again, this is Hamburg. He won't feel the pressure of the home crowd. He might feel the pressure from Florent Serra, though. I'll put Massu's picture up, only because he advanced the farthest of anyone in this quarter in Rome, and even though Roger's won here three times, this quarter remains a pick 'em.

(4) DJOKOVIC, Novak SRB/BYE
BENNETEAU, Julien FRA vs (WC) SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER
(WC) SUMMERER, Tobias GER vs NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN
MAYER, Florian GER v (13) YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS

(10) BERDYCH, Tomas CZE vs VERDASCO, Fernando ESP
MOYA, Carlos ESP vs FISH, Mardy USA
CLEMENT, Arnaud FRA vs STEPANEK, Radek CZE
BYE/(8) BLAKE, James USA

Current events would also tell us that no one except Novak Djokovic has a chance to get through this quarter. But Youzhny is no pushover, Berdych is coming off a quarterfinal run in Rome, Florian Mayer can be tricky on the red stuff, and Radek Stepanek is the defending finalist. Still, the Serb will get through. Watch out for wildcard Rainer Schuettler (just a hunch) and veteran Carlos Moya.

(6) ROBREDO, Tommy ESP/BYE
VERKERK, Martin NED vs ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP
ACASUSO, Jose ARG vs (Q)GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo ESP
(SE) VOLANDRI, Filippo ITA v (9) MURRAY, Andy GBR

(16) HEWITT, Lleyton vs CALLERI, Agustin
CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG vs CANAS, Guillermo
GICQUEL, Marc vs SIMON, Gilles
BYE/(3) DAVYDENKO, Nikolay

Even though Canas (who, quiet as it's kept, is actually better on fast hardcourts than really slow clay) is in this quarter, I'd say this is the No. 3 seed's quarter to lose. He's a warrior and that's what clay is ultimately all about. He's got a good record against everyone in this quarter as well. Still, Almagro is always a threat on clay unless he plays in the shadow of his opponent's aura; Agustin Calleri is streaky, but if he's on, forget about it; Chela and Simon had good runs in Rome; and if Acasuso feels like it, he can hand you your ass on a red platter. Volandri, coming of of a dreamsemifinal run in Rome, has never posted in Hamburg, but watch out for him anyway. That is, if he can get past all the junk Murray will throw at him in the first round.

(5) GONZALEZ, Fernando CHI/BYE
ROCHUS, Olivier BEL vs (Q) MATHIEU, Paul-Henri FRA
(WC) WASKE, Alexander GER vs MELZER, Jurgen AUT
GAUDIO, Gaston ARG vs (11) GASQUET, Richard FRA

(14) BAGHDATIS, Marcos vs (WC) KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER
TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS vs ANDREEV, Igor RUS
BECKER, Benjamin GER vs (Q) HERNANDEZ, Oscar ESP
BYE/(2) NADAL, Rafael ESP

Rafael Nadal. This guy wins matches on clay even with subpar play. What else is there to say? I guess the only thing one can speculate about is whether or not he'll actually play this event. With a bye, he wouldn't have to play his opening match until Wednesday, and neither Becker or Hernandez will be any trouble. Sure, Igor Andreev, the last person to defeat Rafa on clay, lurks as a potential third-round opponent, but wildcard Kohlschreiber is the favorite to get that far. If Rafa doesn't play, look for the homeboy or Gonzalez to take this quarter.